Trade Implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for Poland's Agri-Food Trade

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the implications of trade
liberalization under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)
for the Polish economy. We analyze the level of tariffs and non-tariff protection
in the US and in the EU and identify products particularly “sensitive” from the
point of view of TTIP liberalization. With the help of a partial equilibrium
model, we simulate the trade implications of the TTIP for Poland’s trade with
the US at the detailed product level. We analyze trade creation and diversion
effects of tariff elimination and partial removal of non-tariff barriers. We found
that the TTIP can increase Poland’s trade with the US by around 45 percent
with a limited impact on its trade with the European Union (EU) members.
Subsequent general equilibrium simulations show that trade diversion effects of
the TTIP are substantial, while the welfare benefits of the agreement are limited.