Cyclical Processes in the Polish Economy

Abstract

The economic activity indicators in Poland during the years 1995-2011
exhibit various cyclical patterns. Employing the Christiano – Fitzgerald
band-pass filter and unobserved components model it is shown that the
cyclical processes of Polish economic activity are driven by overlapping higher
frequency fluctuations (3-4 years) and longer cycles of 8.5 years. The cyclical
fluctuations of construction, transportation and trade are dissimilar to gross
value added. Economic activity in transportation leads and in construction lags
the fluctuations of gross value added. Cyclical fluctuations of gross value added
seem to be determined by industry and construction. Manufacturing, especially
capital and intermediate goods fluctuations are responsible for the variation
of industry. The production of non-durable consumer goods, energy and
production of electric power are relatively the most desynchronized compared
to industry. Production of electric power leads industrial production. Capital
goods, intermediate goods and energy cycle phases are asymmetric – the
slowdown lasts shorter and has higher amplitude compared to expansion. During
the last crisis occurred the intensified variation of economic activity in Poland.