Coupling geological exploration with anthropogenic cycles: a systematic approach to assess the dynamics of China’s long-term copper supply structure

Abstract

China accounts for over 50% of global refined copper consumption yet contributes less than 10% of mine production, creating structural upstream vulnerabilities despite its massive midstream refining capacity. To address this imbalance, we developed an integrated system dynamics framework coupling a price-responsive geological exploration module with dynamic material flow analysis (MFA). Uniquely, this model endogenizes reserve replacement dynamics and accounts for discovery efficiency decay, enabling a realistic assessment of supply security under geological constraints (2025–2040). We evaluate three pathways: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Intense Extraction, and Circular Transition. Projections indicate refined demand peaks at ~17.8 million tons between 2030 and 2032. However, demand saturation fails to alleviate import pressure. Under BAU and Intense Extraction, the External Dependence Ratio (EDR) remains persistently above 60%, confirming a “smelting trap” where excess processing capacity necessitates chronic import reliance. Supply-side intensification proves inefficient due to diminishing returns from declining ore grades. Conversely, the Circular Transition scenario – leveraging China’s specific power-grid-dominated anthropogenic stock – elevates the secondary supply ratio to 35%, reducing the EDR to ~42% by 2040 without accelerating reserve depletion. We conclude that prioritizing “urban mining” infrastructure over greenfield exploration yields superior, sustainable risk reduction, highlighting the strategic imperative of shifting from a smelting-centric to a circular-centric paradigm.