The Use of System Dynamics for Modeling Innovation Diffusion

Abstract

The aim of this publication is to synthesize dynamic models for selected innovation diffusion models. For this purpose, modeling in the system dynamics (SD) convention was applied to represent the flow between the stock of potential and current users of innovations in three selected diffusion models: the Bass model, the source model, and the contact model. The AnyLogic software was used as the simulation environment. As a result of the study, simulation models were developed that enable forecasting the behavior of participants in a given population depending on predefined coefficients. This solution is particularly useful for the cost optimization of promotional activities in enterprise departments responsible for marketing innovative products, as well as for diffusion understood as the dissemination of modern organizational and process methods among employees of an organization.