Evolution analysis of the global lithium industrial chain trade network: based on the event-shock complex network method

Abstract

Lithium has become a driving force of the new energy revolution, a crucial option for the international community to jointly advance ecological civilization construction, and one of the fundamental resources for achieving carbon neutrality. Its industrial chain trade exerts a significant impact on the global economy. To further explore the patterns and characteristics of international trade in products across all stages of the lithium industrial chain, this paper adopts a full-industry-chain perspective. It applies the complex network method with Event Impact Factor to analyze the evolution of trade patterns in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors, and constructs trade network indicators to examine the overall and individual nodal characteristics of the network. The research findings indicate that: The international trade of the lithium industrial chain presents distinct trends of decentralization, centralization and polarization transfer in the upstream, midstream and downstream respectively. Upstream trade is primarily affected by industrial technological upgrading and geopolitics, while midstream and downstream trade is mainly shaped by national strategic planning, industrial development and geographical advantages. Countries in the lithium trade network maintain close ties. While network connectivity and efficiency keep rising, blocization remains prominent. Finally, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to enhance the resilience of the entire lithium industrial chain, including improving global governance of the lithium trade network, promoting diversified trade strategies for the global lithium industrial chain, and establishing a global trade early warning and emergency response mechanism.