Prospects for restoration of Ukrainian energy sector infrastructure in the wake of Russian full-scale invasion

Abstract

The study aimed to substantiate engineering approaches to restoring the infrastructure of the energy sector of Ukraine, which suffered large-scale destruction as a result of the full-scale armed invasion of the Russian Federation. The research methodology included modeling emergency and restoration scenarios in specialized software environments to calculate the modes of electric power systems, analyzing the stability of power grids based on the criterion of unchanged operability of elements in case of failure of one of them, and optimizing the configurations of distribution nodes using mathematical programming methods. The study utilized PowerFactory and ETAP for powergrid modeling, MATLAB for optimization, TensorFlow for load forecasting, and HOMER Grid for hybrid power-system modeling to analyze and optimize Ukraine’s energy infrastructure restoration strategies in response to war-induced damage. The study analyzed the stability of regional power grids based on the criterion of unchanged operability in the case of failure of individual elements. Critical regions with high levels of losses and structural overloads were identified, including Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, where more than 100 overloads above 110% and minimum voltages below 0.85 of the nominal level were recorded. The study proposes the introduction of hybrid power systems that provide an autonomous power supply for 14–22 hours. A generalized index assessment of the effectiveness of the reconstruction scenarios (in terms of the full duration of recovery, localization level, current losses, and autonomous support) confirmed the advantage of scenarios combining zonal priority of eastern transits, switching algorithms, and neural network balancing renewable generation.