Dendroclimatological potential of conifers in Pakistan Karakoram-Himalaya region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24425/ppr.2026.6852Abstract
Long tree growth chronologies, also known as "time lines of the environment", have gained rapid improvement in climatically sensitive Pakistan Karakoram-Himalaya over the past three-five decades. But a quantitative assessment of research effort in this area is missing. Here, for the first time, we conducted a quantitative synthesis using descriptive, inferential, multivariate and ecological statistical methods to integrate 78 published dendrochronological studies conducted in Pakistan between 1989–2022 that include eleven conifer species and 22 longest-reported ring-width chronologies. We estimated the distribution of research effort (Wilson 95% confidence intervals), non-parametric group differences (Kruskal-Wallis), information-theoretic diversity (Shannon-Wiener, Simpson, Pielou), contingency independence between species and research domains (chi-square and Cramér's V), correlation and ordinary least-squares regression of elevation on chronology length, estimated elevational niche overlap (Pianka's index) and site-sharing (Jaccard similarity) and synthesized the data through principal component analysis (PCA) and Ward's hierarchical clustering. Pinus wallichiana (20.5%, 95% CI 13.0–30.8%), Abies pindrow (16.7%, 10.0–26.5%), Picea smithiana (15.4%, 9.0–25.0%) and Cedrus deodara (14.1%, 8.1–23.5%) emerged as the most-studied taxa, while Taxus baccata and three Juniperus species were markedly underrepresented. Chronologies ranged in length from 51 to 1224 years, with a mean of 445 years (SD = 366) and the mean Picea smithiana chronology length rivaled the longest chronology lengths of Juniperus excelsa and Juniperus turkestanica. The distribution of species was even (Pielou's J' = 0.90) and a positive monotonic correlation existed between the longest chronology and site elevation (Spearman ρ = 0.70, p = 0.035). The number of papers published per year showed high linear association (r² = 0.86, p < 0.001), with the PCA of the underlying profiles of the trees explaining 87.5% variance on two principal axes and three clusters with an ecological basis. These findings provide the first quantitative, empirical guidance on priorities in improving the Pakistan dendrochronology record and suggest the need for a more targeted effort to obtain juvenile wood samples of the under-represented Junipers, yews and hardwoods to address significant temporal and elevational gaps in the Asian tree-ring record.
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