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Cykl koniunkturalny w budownictwie mieszkaniowym w Polsce w latach 2007-2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24425/ace.2024.151883Abstrakt
W artykule zbadano dynamiczną interakcję między cyklem koniunkturalnym a rynkiem mieszkaniowym w Polsce w latach 2007-2022. Analiza obejmuje złożony związek między cyklami gospodarczymi a sektorem nieruchomości mieszkaniowych, koncentrując się na wpływie interwencji rządowych i wahań rynkowych. Badanie pokazuje, że rynek mieszkaniowy jest bardzo wrażliwy na czynniki zewnętrzne. Podkreśla centralną rolę Narodowego Banku Polskiego (NBP) w kształtowaniu rynku mieszkaniowego poprzez zmiany stóp procentowych i dostępności kredytów. Pandemia COVID-19 tymczasowo zakłóciła działalność deweloperską i popyt mieszkaniowy, podkreślając wrażliwość rynku na nieoczekiwane wstrząsy. Poza obserwacjami, niniejsze badanie apeluje o krytyczną analizę polityki mieszkaniowej, identyfikując potencjalne niedociągnięcia i oferując zalecenia dotyczące poprawy. Podkreśla, że kryzysy gospodarcze są nieodłączną częścią cykli na rynku mieszkaniowym, promując oczyszczanie rynku i zdrową konkurencję. Wreszcie, w badaniu podkreślono, że rynek mieszkaniowy jest powiązany z szerszymi trendami gospodarczymi. Podkreśla ono potrzebę znalezienia przez banki centralne równowagi pomiędzy zarządzaniem inflacją a wspieraniem wzrostu gospodarczego. Badanie to pomaga lepiej zrozumieć związek między rynkiem mieszkaniowym a cyklem koniunkturalnym, dostarczając cennych informacji na potrzeby kształtowania polityki i podejmowania decyzji inwestycyjnych. Cykl koniunkturalny (koniunktura i dekoniunktura) ma decydujący wpływ na rozwój rynku nieruchomości i ceny zawieranych transakcji pomiędzy deweloperami, a nabywcami mieszkań.Bibliografia
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