Dynamic modelling and SWOT approach for developing strengthening strategies for the shrimp industry in the coastal area

Abstract

Today, Indonesia’s food security and coastal economy are sustained by the vita sector of shrimp aquaculture. This study aims to formulate strategies for developing sustainable shrimp farming in the coastal region of Pekalongan, Indonesia, one of the country’s major aquaculture centres. The research employed a case study and exploratory approach, integrating dynamic system modelling and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. Data were collected through field observations, interviews, and literature reviews. The process involved shrimp farmers, fisheries agencies, and local stakeholders. Dynamic model outputs indicated that rising shrimp harvest yields are linked with greater organic waste loads, potentially diminishing the ecological carrying capacity of surrounding coastal ecosystems. The modelling results indicate that shrimp pond operations have strong prospects for future development, provided that appropriate aquaculture methods are effectively adapted. The SWOT analysis positioned the development of shrimp aquaculture in quadrant I, indicating the need for an aggressive strategy to capitalise on existing strengths and opportunities. Priority strategies focus on optimising land use based on accessibility and stabilising water sources through advanced technologies. They also emphasise leveraging government support for aquaculture innovation, strengthening research collaborations, and digitalising export product marketing. Implementing these strategies is expected to enhance production efficiency, maintain environmental sustainability, and strengthen the competitiveness of Pekalongan’s shrimp industry in the global market. These findings provide a conceptual foundation for developing an adaptive aquaculture sector in Indonesia that aligns with climate change resilience and the principles of a sustainable blue economy. This finding is highly important considering the rising global demand for food security.