Impacts of climate change on water resources and inter-basin water transfer: The Loukkos basin, Morocco

Abstract

Climate change poses a major challenge for water-resources management in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where declining precipitation and increasing hydrological variability threaten water security. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water availability in the Loukkos River basin (Northern Morocco) and assesses the feasibility of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) as an adaptation strategy under future climatic conditions. The analysis is based on a comprehensive methodological framework combining statistical analysis of long-term hydrological records (1945–2022), stochastic modelling for projected inflow scenarios, and reservoir system simulation using the River Basin Simulation Model (RIBASIM), incorporating climate scenarios to reflect uncertainty in precipitation patterns. Results revealed a significant hydrological regime shift around 1979, followed by a decline in water availability. Mean annual inflows decreased by approximately 41 and 31% in the Oued El Makhazine–Tfer and Dar Khrofa dams, respectively. Reservoir simulations illustrate the basin’s capacity to satisfy local water demands while maintaining inter-basin transfer potential. Under baseline conditions, transferable volumes reach approximately 193 Mm³∙yr⁻¹ increasing to 271 Mm³∙yr⁻¹ by 2050, with the construction of the Tfer dam. Climate change projections indicate that transferable volumes exhibit high interannual variability and may decline to zero in certain years. The findings highlight the critical role of strategic infrastructure development, particularly enhanced storage capacity, in mitigating climate change impacts. Inter-basin water transfer remains viable, but its long-term reliability under climate uncertainty depends on flexible allocation rules and adaptive management.